It has been a while now I have not been back in the FX saddle. I have been busy with updating information and material into the new group website. I still have problems with video uploads. At the same time I am managing my new Online store for Hobbyist enthusiast like my self. Nothing related with Fx but I just want to share it , it is at www.wntshop.com
Ok let’s get back down to business. As usual my favourite major is the EURUSD. So I am going to analyse what EURUSD been doing during my absence.
Looking at Higher time frame WEEKLY , where are we in perspective.
What do you all see ?
EURUSD been creeping higher on a bullish tone whilst ECB warns on EUR rally will not sustain long. That’s a clue that we are nearing supply.
But I am not sure about that as a proper supply up there at 1.42 ish. Let see if I can establish a trend on a lower time frame to see what should I do first thing on Monday.
Noticing that a impulsive vs corrective move previous week. 5 bull candle impulsive. The Trend is still Bullish scenario, I want to see if any reaction to that support area 1.3825 horizontal line will give me a clue to enter BUY or to exit short term sell around those price level.
Most of the price has been rallying efficiently. There is not even a single demand level seen here at all. Most of the orders are filled.
Lets play along intraday Monday tomorrow. See how it can sustain.
So far we are not even near to a larger time frame supply so we can either trade this either way. Strength is quite significant for an intraday, so that drop I would judge it as 2. Period at which price stayed there, a 1 . Profit margin is more than 3 times the risk so thats a 2. Whilst we are not near into any larger time frame level , so thats a 0.
Retracement, first visit and still fresh, a 2. Arrival has been efficient, providing room and profit margin for a least path resistance. so any strong move open on Monday , I am selling this for a confirmation price action. Since the total score is 8 , I am looking into a smaller tf to enter a trade.
I might go as far as the 15 min and 30 min Time frame. I would look for a Pin bar or an Engulfing . If none shown then I am not taking the trade.
Will this trade work ? I don’t know, but what I do know I believe there is a high probability potential supply there where sellers might be sitting. I will consistently apply my Money management rule and plan the trade to exit at 1.3825 for a short term trade.
Why exit early ? Daily chart has told me it is bullish bias. So I am counter trending it on a small time scale and suck those micro trade move money.
We will see how it happens tomorrow and I will discuss this with my group members in the trading group.
Have a great weekend and Happy hunting!!