Back to Trading

It has been a while now I have not been back in the FX saddle. I have been busy with updating information and material into the new group website. I still have problems with video uploads.  At the same time I am managing my new Online store for Hobbyist enthusiast like my self. Nothing related with Fx but I just want to share it , it is at www.wntshop.com 

Ok let’s get back down to business. As usual my favourite major is the EURUSD. So I am going to analyse what EURUSD been doing during my absence.

Looking at Higher time frame WEEKLY , where are we  in perspective.

weekly_eurusd

What do you all see ?

EURUSD been creeping higher on a bullish tone whilst ECB warns on EUR rally will not sustain long. That’s a clue that we are nearing supply.

But I am not sure about that as a proper supply up there at 1.42 ish. Let see if I can establish a trend on a lower time frame to see what should I do first thing on Monday.

daily_eurusddNoticing that a impulsive vs corrective move previous week. 5 bull candle impulsive. The Trend is still Bullish scenario, I want to see if any reaction to that support area 1.3825 horizontal line will give me a clue to enter BUY or to exit short term sell around those price level.

4h_eurusd

Most of the price has been rallying efficiently. There is not even a single demand level seen here at all. Most of the orders are filled.

Lets play along intraday Monday tomorrow. See how it can sustain.

H1_EurusdI notice a sharp turn last week. Showing me an area of fresh supply for intraday setup.

So far we are not even near to a larger time frame supply so we can either trade this either way. Strength is quite significant for an intraday, so that drop I would judge it as 2. Period at which price stayed there, a 1 . Profit margin is more than 3 times the risk so thats a 2. Whilst we are not near into any larger time frame level , so thats a 0.

Retracement, first visit and still fresh, a 2. Arrival has been efficient, providing room and profit margin for a least path resistance. so any strong move open on Monday , I am selling this for a confirmation price action. Since the total score is 8 , I am looking into a smaller tf to enter a trade.

I might go as far as the 15 min and 30 min Time frame. I would look for a Pin bar or an Engulfing . If none shown then I am not taking the trade.

Will this trade work ? I don’t know, but what I do know I believe there is a high probability potential supply there where sellers might be sitting. I will consistently apply my Money management rule and plan the trade to exit at 1.3825 for a short term trade.

Why exit early ? Daily chart has told me it is bullish bias. So I am counter trending it on a small time scale and suck those micro trade move money.

We will see how it happens tomorrow and I will discuss this with my group members in the trading group.

Have a great weekend and Happy hunting!!

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