Last time I made an assumption on the daily demand roughly at 1.3100 ish area but went falling instead with strong negative fundamental. Being that level failed Im sure it will be something we might revisit and when it does, It will be a supply level if confirmed.
Its almost April and I am looking into the chart for what will be facing in April. THis Time I will vouch for BULL trend when the price does reach at 1.2650 or below it . I will normally wait for a reversal confirmation on the 4 h before holding long term position on this trade.
Here is the weekly chart where we stand.
We are nearing a Demand that was formerly a supply. A failed supply tend to become a new demand. Which in this case around the 1.26 ish. Notice that on the weekly chart, the drop from 1.29 ish or above it, a supply is formed on the weekly chart. What does that tell me ? Any long from the 1.26 will be definitely be halted at that supply . so roughly a 300+ move. A better demand is near at the origin which is 1.2400. In order this price to be achieve is possibly a rally before the drop. Just like an elastic band. Pulling it before releasing its strong projectile.
So any one who is selling , better ready to close your trade or bank half. ready to be a buyer soon in April. All we need is just any bad news coming from Europe or a strong Dollar to push the price down enough to reach that Demand level.
Lets look at the daily.
Looks like the outlook here is pretty obvious. We are just 200 pip or 150 pip away from the demand. I am assuming mr Draghi will say something positive about the Euro that will help propel the price and I will anticipate that monitoring the price action on a 4h chart at that demand level below 1.2650.
Friday close confirmed a price action there circled a reversal pin bar at the 20 EMA resistance moving average. So I will be expecting a bearish move next week in the midst of a strong move ( How I wish ) because I want to end this short and get on with buying soon.
We’ll see what installed this weekend with Europe in its chaos of problem.
I hope this gives you some insight and idea as to where we are with the current market price. The trend will turn soon and so will I be, a buyer of Euro… when its below wholesale price!
Happy trading everyone!!